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Finding future water in Southern Africa: Avoiding Conflict and War

Saliem Fakir (Country Programme Co-ordinator, IUCN (World Conservation Union)

Introduction

A few weeks ago it was world water day, and this should serve us all a reminder that we are not a country and a region that is richly endowed with a abundance of water supply. For instance the average rainfall in the region varies from 250mm to 968 mm per year, with Namibia receiving the lowest rainfall. Contrary to popular misconception, Southern Africa is an arid to semi-arid region, with the current situation best described as water scarce and being water stressed in about 30 years time as economies and population size grows. Countries in the region share many water ways and resources creating the potential for possible conflicts and tensions in the future. If, anything, crisis over water is the single most important factor likely to lead to political strife and possibly war. The region is also prone to recurrent droughts, and exposure to high temperature ranges causing rapid evaporation of water.

Demand for water from agriculture, industry and domestic use is expected to come under increased competition as population numbers rise and economies increase in size. In addition, many countries are also concerned about maintaining ecological functions which are not adequately met under current systems of water management and allocation. With increased demands, and limited supply potential within countries, countries are forced to seek other sources of supply outside their borders and at great cost. Conflicts are inevitable given that most of the river systems in the region are already utilised and are inter-connected ignoring political boundaries. Disputes have already taken place between Botswana and Namibia over abstraction of water from the Etosha or Okavango.

Water like land in the region is also a politically sensitive issue. In South Africa for instance, at least about 60% of water is in the control of private hands. Water is also subject to socio-political debates about access and rights of use, which in the region are widespread given the inequities that are prevalent. This is also in the context where dam building globally has come under scrutiny leading to the creation of the World Dams Commission whose task is to identify the development effectiveness of dams and in so doing produce guidelines and make recommendations on alternative approaches and best practise.

Recently, the World Water Council, has launched a global initiative in creating a World Water Vision as it felt that governments were not giving water issues enough attention. The development of such a global vision would be in time for discussion and adoption at the 2^nd World Water Forum to be held in March 2000 in the Hague. It is hoped that through this process greater awareness will be created amongst politicians and other decision makers.

How is water demand met?

The demand for water has traditionally been met by the building of large dams and reservoirs, or countries which have limited sources of water generally import water from other countries through inter-basin transfers. For example the Lesotho Highland Water Scheme draws water from the source of the Orange River and transfers it to the Vaal River Basin. This project alone cost US$700 million indicating the kind of capital cost that can be incurred in acquiring new sources of water.

The scope for being able to do more of these kinds of developments in the future is limited, as building dams and undertaking inter-basin transfers is expensive, they often involve social conflicts, and the ability to dam more water in the future physically is also not feasible as most of the options have already been explored.

While conventional approaches to securing water have been fairly successful, they only focused on supply, and did not take into account adequately increased competition for water and the way in which water was consumed by users of the resource. More importantly, the supply of water operated in a context, where water tended, and is still the case, to be subsidised to the user. So that users never really paid the true cost of water, like the  cost of actually supplying  water to one’s tap, its economic value, and its environmental value. For instance the, the agricultural sector, which in the region consumes about 50% or more of the total available water, pays very little for water. Experts argue that the subsidisation of water, where its true cost is not reflected, has led to abuse of water, and the lack of responsibility and care for water wastage by users.

What are the alternatives

One possible alternative is the application of what is called water demand management (WDM). Experts argue that if water demand is applied properly the cost of building new dams can be defrayed or delayed. In South Africa, the Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry, Prof Kader Asmal, for instance is delaying the building of a the Skuifraam Dam in Cape Town, until the Cape Town local authority has demonstrated that it can institute a water demand management programme. This is probably the first time in the world that a decision to build a new dam is pending on the successful implementation of a WDM programme.

Demand management is the application of various approaches to influence and change the way in which water is consumed and used. In other words, demand management is concerned with the way in which water is conserved and used efficiently. From the conservation angle, this would require investment in fixing leaks, introducing new shower caps so that water is used sparingly or passing regulations to limit the hours in which one can water gardens or ban the use of hoses for car washing.

Over the last three years or so, if you received a bill from your local municipality then you will notice that if you consume water above a certain limit then the prices are likely to double or triple. Measures such as these are referred to as water pricing or block tarification which are  also used as demand management instruments. All of this is part of water demand management strategies.

While the major part of water demand management may concern itself with conservation and increasingly the flow of water as a result, an important area that is often neglected is the productive use of water itself. So what if more water flows through our taps, and we block all leaks, but what is the maximum economic return that one can gain from the use of the water in the future? In other-words, what is the optimum economic return that one can derive from the use of a scarce resource

This is particularly so in sectors such as agriculture. The agricultural sector is often accused of using water inefficiently because it is subsidised by governments in the region. It is thought by economist that by changing the price of water farmers will be forced to introduce water saving measures, but more importantly shift to planting higher value crops in areas that are more suitable for agriculture. Water demand in this case would also have environmental benefits in the long-term as it will ensure more sustainable uses of agricultural resources.  For example, there is a debate in South Africa as to whether South Africa should be growing crops like maize or wheat, when some countries in the SADC region, because of soil fertility and high rainfall, are better suited to grow these more cheaply. This is often referred to as the virtual water debate.

Demand management has been practised eslewhere in the region and in South Africa. To examine the possibility of introducing water demand management approaches on a wider scale in the region, the IUCN (World Conservation Union) conducted a 18 month policy study in 5 countries, viz: Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia and Mozambique. The study was funded by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA). The studies revealed clearly that there is a great scope for the application of water demand management in the region, but it requires political will and commitment from government. Most of these have occurred as individual projects, or pilot studies, and not as part of a comprehensive approach to water resources management. The findings have been also been produced as a synthesis paper by the IUCN South Africa and can be made available to readers on request.

To demonstrate the benefits of WDM drawing from existing examples would be useful. After the 1992 droughts, the city of Windhoek put in place demand management practises. The results were significant. The Windhoek municipality managed to reduce consumption by 30-50% from 1992 onwards. In South Africa, similar successes were reported for the Greater Hermanus area where the first comprehensive demand management strategy was applied consumption was reduced by 16.5% in the first 12 months. In demonstrating such successes both local authorities have also shown major cost savings.

Legal transformation of water law is taking place and already provides a good basis for changing both attitudes and approaches to managing water in Southern Africa. However, to make demand management an integral part of water resources management in Southern Africa, demand management has to be applied at a national scale. South Africa is one of the few countries in the region which has developed a comprehensive strategy for WDM. But, other countries like Zimbabwe and Botswana are undertaking similar initiatives through their national Water Resources Management Strategy and National Water Master Plan respectively.

There are certain constraints to the extensive implementation of  demand management in Southern Africa as it is still viewed with cynicism in some quarters. There are a number of reasons for this:

·        WDM is perceived by opponents to be driven by environmentalist and conservationist and not engineers. There is a need to change the mindset as water resource management is dominated by the interest of large engineering companies who constantly push governments to build dams rather than look at alternatives.

·        Secondly, where water services have been privatized, water demand may imply the possible loss of revenue to private companies running and managing these services in urban areas so there is no real profit incentive which can persuade companies to do otherwise.

·        Thirdly, local governments may not have the right incentives  and structure to apply demand management, as financial savings flow into the general local government pool and cannot be reused to invest in further demand management work.

·        Fourthly, water demand in urban areas requires substantial initial investment in metering, monitoring of meters, and the installation of expense water saving devices. The availability of these initial capital cost can delay the implementation of WDM approaches. This coupled with the widespread culture of non-payment, makes it all the more difficult for financially squeezed local governments to implement such a programme in the short-term.

·        Fifthly, demand management requires a combination of strategies like policy change, legal reform, educational programmes, the availability of technology and expertise to mount a comprehensive approach. Most countries in the region, for example if we take Mozambique as a case in point, lack resources so implementation will take longer than usual.

What are the possibilities for the future?

As the IUCN study has shown, that resource poor countries such as Mozambique which cannot afford to build more dams will have to consider alternatives. With the advent of drought in 1992, the application of WDM measures in the region were shown to be very successful. The sectors where it has been most successful have been in urban domestic use and industry. Agriculture and rural domestic use continue to be a challenge as these require investment in metering infrastructure, and in agriculture in particular, there is likely to be stiff resistance from farmers which have benefited from the cheap supply of water. Management of ground water under a WDM regime poses also many challenges. Ground water management poses unique challenges in the region as much of the ground water sources and availability have not been comprehensively mapped in the various SADC States.

However, the key factor is to get region wide political support which does not exist at the moment. In SADC, water resource management is being dealt with by the inter-governmental structure called the SADC Water Co-ordinating Sector Unit. This unit was set up recently, in 1996, to oversee the implementation of integrated water resource management in the region. It remains a key instrument for promoting the adoption of WDM strategies in the region as a whole.

To conclude then, at a recent SIDA/IDRC funded conference on water demand management which was hosted by the IUCN, Prof Kader, who gave the keynote address, aptly pointed out that “…success in our use of water will be determined by the success with which we manage to live together. It is in the nature of things that we may be able to use water to lead the way in our relationships”. Perhaps, water demand management will be one of the key instruments by which the region is able to avert any future water crisis and potential conflict in between sovereign States in Southern Africa.